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CASE STUDIES

Black Peak's case studies highlight innovative strategies and proven results in executing high-impact signature gathering and door-knocking campaigns across diverse political landscapes.

Sheehy

Tim Sheehy’s Victory and Black Peak’s
Field Strategy

Background

During Tim Sheehy’s campaign to unseat an incumbent, Black Peak was subcontracted to execute a robust field program that focused on both low and high turnout likely Republican voters. Over the course of the election cycle, Black Peak knocked on between 150,000 to 200,000 doors as part of a broader effort exceeding 300,000 voter contacts. This strategy was pivotal in Sheehy’s decisive 10-point victory.

Strategy and Approach

  1. Expanding the Voter Universe:

    • Unlike typical campaigns that focus solely on high-turnout voters, this effort targeted low-turnout Republican voters as well. To unseat an incumbent, it was essential to engage all potential supporters.

    • Emphasis was placed on rural areas that are often overlooked during elections, ensuring these communities felt included in the process.

  2. Adapting for Sparse Door Density:

    • In rural regions where homes were spaced 20-25 minutes apart, making door-knocking unfeasible, the firm subcontracting Black Peak implemented phone calls to ensure voters in these areas were still contacted.

  3. Leveraging the Trump Effect:

    • Donald Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy was a critical talking point at many doors. Canvassers emphasized Trump’s support to energize voters and secure commitments to vote.

Execution

  • Door-to-Door Outreach: Black Peak’s team made direct voter contact at between 150,000 to 200,000 doors, engaging low and high turnout voters across Montana.

  • Rural Focus: Special attention was given to rural areas, where voter contact often makes a significant impression due to the lack of campaign activity in these regions.

  • Strategic Adaptations: Phone banking was used to supplement door-knocking in areas where door density made physical canvassing impractical, ensuring no voter was left uncontacted.

Results

  • Tim Sheehy won by a 10-point margin, a decisive victory over the incumbent.

  • Rural outreach efforts and engagement of low-turnout voters were key contributors to the win, expanding the Republican voter base in Montana.

  • Trump’s endorsement helped galvanize voter excitement and turnout, demonstrating the importance of high-profile endorsements in contentious races.

Key Takeaways

1. The Trump Effect

Donald Trump’s candidacy and endorsement of Sheehy generated significant excitement among Montana voters. Canvassers frequently referenced Trump’s support, which proved effective in securing commitments to vote. While having a top-ballot candidate with strong voter appeal is invaluable, it is not always a controllable factor for campaigns.

2. Talk to All Voters
Engaging as many voters as possible—even low-turnout voters who are often ignored—is critical in flipping contentious seats. Reaching rural communities, in particular, goes a long way in building trust and ensuring voter engagement in areas that often feel overlooked.

 

3. Adapt to Circumstances
Flexibility in strategy is essential. In sparsely populated areas, phone banking was an effective supplement to door-knocking, ensuring comprehensive voter contact despite logistical challenges.

4. Rural Outreach Matters
Making personal connections in rural areas can have a profound impact, as these voters are accustomed to being neglected during election cycles. The campaign’s rural focus contributed significantly to Sheehy’s success.

Conclusion

Black Peak’s strategic focus on engaging both low and high turnout voters, coupled with a strong emphasis on rural outreach, played a pivotal role in Tim Sheehy’s 10-point victory. By adapting to logistical challenges and leveraging the excitement generated by Trump’s endorsement, the campaign maximized voter contact and turnout. The success of this campaign highlights the importance of casting a wide net, adaptability, and leveraging high-profile endorsements in achieving electoral success.

Minnesota and Black Peak’s GOTV Efforts

Minnesota

In October 2024, as the general election approached, Black Peak was subcontracted by a national firm to execute a targeted get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. The task involved knocking on 30,000 doors across five house districts in Minnesota, including those of Aaron Paul, Natalie Zeleznikar, and Tom Dippel. Each district required 5,000 doors, and the targeted universe consisted of likely Republican voters or those leaning Republican. Given the limited scope, this project focused on reinforcing commitments to vote rather than broader persuasion efforts.

Strategy and Approach

  1. Highly Targeted Universe:

    • The targeted universe was small due to budget constraints and a focus on voters likely to support Republican candidates. This narrowed the effort to a precise GOTV initiative aimed at ensuring turnout among these groups.

    • Conversations were discontinued immediately if a voter indicated they would not be supporting the Republican candidate, maximizing efficiency and impact.

  2. GOTV Metrics and Data Collection:

    • Success was measured by voter commitments to vote rather than conducting broader polling.

    • Our outreach efforts were specifically targeted at voters already aligned with Aaron Paul's platform, rather than the entire district. This strategy, focused solely on turnout, naturally skewed the polling results. Since we concentrated on likely supporters, the collected voter preference data reflected a biased universe, leading to outcomes that inaccurately projected Aaron Paul consistently polling 12 points ahead. This discrepancy was expected, given the alignment between our targeted voter base and his political stance.

  3. Messaging and Persuasion:

    • While the primary focus was GOTV, persuasion was employed when undecided voters were encountered.

    • Canvassers organically identified key issues: the economy, refugees/immigration, and reproductive rights. This feedback allowed Black Peak to collaborate with the client to develop truthful, persuasive messaging if needed.

 

Execution

  • Focused GOTV Efforts: Canvassers provided information on how and where to vote, ensuring voters were prepared and motivated to participate.

  • Quality Control Measures: To maintain accuracy and mitigate campaign burnout, Black Peak:

    • Spot-checked all canvassers daily.

    • Deployed auditors to track canvasser locations and verify data integrity.

  • Demographic Matching: Circulators were carefully selected to reflect the demographics of the communities they canvassed, fostering trust and increasing engagement.

Results

  • Two critical wins were achieved from our efforts as well as those of other PACs deploying field resources: 

    • Tying the Minnesota State House for the first time since 1979.

    • Natalie Zeleznikar and Tom Dippell secured victories, highlighting the importance of the GOTV effort and targeted universe.

 

Key Takeaways

1. Know Your Issues
While the campaign was primarily GOTV, occasional persuasion was necessary for undecided voters. By leveraging canvasser feedback, key issues like the economy, immigration, and reproductive rights were identified, and messaging was developed collaboratively with the client. This preparedness ensured the campaign could pivot effectively when needed.

2. Bigger Universe Matters
The limited size of the voter universe was due to budgetary constraints. However, comprehensive door-knocking is critical when attempting to flip districts. In Aaron Paul’s case, expanding the universe could have secured his victory, as every additional vote counts in tight races.

3. Quality Control is Critical
Late in the election cycle, burnout among canvassers can lead to errors. Black Peak’s rigorous quality control processes, including daily spot checks and location tracking, ensured accurate and reliable data collection.

4. Match Demographics to Communities
A key success factor was deploying canvassers who matched the demographics of the communities they canvassed. This alignment fostered trust and improved voter engagement, contributing significantly to the campaign’s effectiveness.

Conclusion

Black Peak’s focused and strategic GOTV campaign for the Minnesota Pro Jobs Majority PAC was instrumental in securing critical victories in the 2024 general election. By targeting likely Republican voters, maintaining high standards of quality control, and ensuring demographic alignment between canvassers and communities, the effort delivered measurable results in tight races. The lessons learned from this campaign underscore the importance of precision, preparation, and adaptability in achieving electoral success.

John Curtis, Derek Brown, and the Utah 2024 Election Cycle

Utah

Background

The 2024 election cycle posed significant hurdles for Republican candidates in Utah, particularly when it came to navigating the state’s stringent signature-gathering process. Black Peak rose to the occasion, spearheading a field program that ensured 27 Republican candidates qualified for the ballot, including prominent figures such as John Curtis and Derek Brown, as well as many down-ballot contenders. This monumental effort required gathering over 140,000 signatures across multiple races, with most deadlines being within just 90 days, all while addressing systemic challenges highlighted by a recent state audit.

Understanding Utah's Signature-Gathering Hurdles

Utah's signature-gathering requirements for ballot access are uniquely stringent. Thresholds for qualification range from 150% to 470% higher than comparable states, creating significant obstacles for campaigns. For statewide races, candidates needed 28,000 valid signatures—a daunting task under any circumstances.

Adding to the difficulty:

  • Restricted Signer Pool: Only registered Republicans could sign petitions, cutting the pool of eligible signers by nearly half statewide.

  • Residency Requirements for Circulators: Until late in the signature-gathering season, Utah law required circulators to be in-state residents, preventing campaigns from leveraging experienced out-of-state help during critical early phases.

  • Signatures Count for One Candidate Only: Petition signatures in a single race could only count toward one candidate. If a voter signed multiple petitions, only the first candidate to submit their signatures would benefit. This rule caused 12% to 20% of signatures to be disqualified for candidates who submitted second, significantly increasing the difficulty of qualifying for the ballot. As a result, some candidates who weren’t the first to submit their packets failed to meet the threshold and were unable to qualify.

These factors made Utah’s process one of the most challenging in the country, requiring innovation, precision, and relentless effort to achieve success.

Overcoming Systemic Challenges in Signature Verification

A legislative audit conducted in 2024 exposed errors in Utah’s signature verification process, citing human error and inconsistencies in validating signatures. For some candidates, incorrectly validated signatures could have jeopardized their qualification for the ballot. These findings underscored the importance of rigorous validation procedures, a surplus of signatures to act as a buffer against errors, and innovative strategies for compliance.

Black Peak anticipated these challenges and implemented a robust system to ensure accuracy and mitigate risk. A pivotal component of this effort was door-to-door signature gathering, which allowed canvassers to stay within district boundaries and significantly increase validity rates. By directly engaging voters, canvassers collected signatures that were more likely to meet strict verification standards.

Additional safeguards included:

  • Third-Party Validation: Independent audits checked the integrity of signatures before submission, reducing the risk of disqualification.

  • Buffer Signatures: Candidates collected significantly more signatures than the minimum required, creating a safeguard against potential errors in the verification process.

Strategy and Approach

Our approach centered on three critical pillars:

  1. Pre-Validation Protocols: Before signatures were submitted, we implemented rigorous pre-validation processes to catch issues early, such as:

    • Identifying signatures gathered outside the district.

    • Verifying voter information in real-time to avoid common errors.

  2. Focus on Rural Utah: While other firms concentrated on urban areas, we prioritized engaging rural parts of Utah, areas traditionally overlooked in such campaigns. This strategy:

    • Reduced the risk of duplicate signatures across candidates.

    • Brought in fresh, valid signatures from less saturated voter pools.

  3. Strict Signature Collection Standards: Unlike other firms that allowed circulators to fill out voter information on petitions, our strict protocols ensured voters completed their own information. This prevented:

    • Misspellings.

    • Inaccurate dates of birth.

    • Other validity issues caused by third-party errors.

Execution

For John Curtis and Derek Brown’s campaigns, our team:

  • Conducted extensive training for circulators on proper signature-gathering practices.

  • Used real-time data validation tools to flag errors or inconsistencies immediately.

  • Focused outreach in rural Utah to maximize validity rates and reduce duplicate candidate signatures.

Out of the three statewide candidates whose signatures were challenged, Derek Brown and John Curtis were the only ones to pass their audits. The governor’s campaign failed due to the firm they hired not implementing similar quality control measures, highlighting the importance of rigorous validation procedures.

While our methods resulted in slower progress compared to other firms, the tradeoff was clear: higher signature validity rates and successful audits for both candidates.

Results

  • John Curtis and Derek Brown’s petitions passed their audits, standing out as the only candidates to do so among their peers.

  • Our validity rates remained strong, even in rural areas, and were unaffected by the common issue of duplicate candidate signatures.

  • Despite being the third to submit signatures for Curtis, the campaign’s thorough and reliable submission process ensured compliance and success.

Key Takeaways

1. Pre-Validation is Crucial
Pre-validation prevents fraud and allows early detection of validity issues, such as circulators gathering signatures outside the district. By addressing these issues early, campaigns can avoid costly challenges later.

2. Slow and Steady Wins the Race
While some firms prioritized speed, they often encountered validity issues due to poor practices, such as circulators filling out voter information themselves. Our slower, protocol-driven approach ensured accuracy and compliance, even if it required more time and resources.

3. Focus on Rural Utah
Engaging rural voters proved to be a winning strategy. These areas, often ignored by other firms, provided fresh, unduplicated signatures and bolstered overall validity rates.

4. Room for Improvement
Our slower pace and smaller team size meant that we were the third to submit signatures for John Curtis, which led to increased campaign costs. However, since 2024, we have expanded our network to include over 2,000 canvassers across Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Minnesota, Florida, and Texas. This growing team will allow us to scale operations while maintaining our high standards.

Conclusion

The 2024 election cycle reinforced the importance of precision and strategy in signature gathering. By emphasizing pre-validation, strict collection standards, and rural engagement, our team delivered for John Curtis and Derek Brown in a challenging environment. While there is room for improvement in scaling operations, the lessons learned and our expanded network position us to continue leading in Utah and beyond.

Black Peak and Anthony Loubet’s (R) Historic Wins in Utah’s HD 27

Anthony Loubet

Background

Before 2022, Utah’s House District 27 had been a Democratic stronghold since its inception, with over 100 years of uninterrupted control. In this deeply purple district, flipping the seat required not only a comprehensive campaign strategy but also a nuanced understanding of the district’s diverse voter base. Black Peak was retained in 2022 to provide both door-to-door persuasion services and campaign messaging, marking the beginning of a partnership that would redefine the political landscape of HD 27.

 

2022 Campaign

Black Peak’s strategy was built on a multi-faceted approach to appeal to Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters alike. With a focus on common-ground issues, the campaign emphasized:

  • Working across the aisle: Positioning Anthony Loubet as a pragmatic leader willing to collaborate.

  • Education: Advocating for strong schools and parent choice while maintaining public school funding.

  • Housing affordability: Highlighting solutions for families struggling with rising housing costs.

  • Infrastructure: Promising practical improvements to benefit all constituents.

  • Lowering taxes: Advocating for tax policies that ease burdens on families and businesses.

  • Supporting small businesses: Highlighting the importance of fostering a business-friendly environment.

  • Supporting working-class families (Unions): Addressing the needs and challenges faced by everyday Utahns.

To ensure maximum voter contact, Black Peak devised a comprehensive door-knocking strategy targeting likely voters across party lines. By the end of the general election, canvassers had knocked on 10,000 doors, delivering the campaign’s key messages directly to constituents.

Black Peak also worked closely with Loubet to build relationships with key lobbyists and advocacy groups. This effort not only bolstered volunteer support but also significantly enhanced the campaign’s fundraising efforts within Utah.

Despite the uphill battle, Loubet’s campaign secured a narrow victory, winning by just 67 votes. Curing—a process Black Peak specializes in—proved to be a critical factor during the final weeks of the election, ensuring that every valid vote was counted.

 

2024 Campaign

Building on the foundation laid in 2022, Black Peak continued its partnership with Loubet to solidify his position in the district. Over the next two years, Black Peak served as a strategic sounding board for policy decisions, ensuring his appeal to both Republicans and Democrats remained strong.

During the 2024 election cycle, Black Peak implemented a similar voter contact strategy, knocking on thousands of doors and working with Governing Group PAC to ensure successful volunteer action days as well from multiple special interest groups focusing on shared concerns like the economy, education, and housing affordability. This time, Loubet won decisively, defeating an aggressive Democratic challenger by over 1,100 votes.

 

Key Takeaways

1. Pre-Polling is Critical in Tight Races
Although the campaign lacked funding for formal polling, one of Black Peak’s founders had deep local knowledge, having lived just outside the district for years. This insider perspective, combined with polling data from neighboring districts and campaign partners, allowed the team to develop data-driven messaging that resonated with voters. This approach played a pivotal role in flipping a century-old blue seat red.

2. Social Issues Are Not Your Friend in Purple Districts
In districts where ideological differences run deep, focusing on divisive social issues can alienate voters. Instead, the campaign centered on universally relevant topics like the economy, education, and housing affordability, creating a unifying message that appealed to a broad audience.

3. A Total Door Knock Strategy is Essential
Flipping a district requires engaging with as many voters as possible. By knocking on every door of likely voters, the campaign ensured its message reached Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters, creating a comprehensive and effective ground game.

4. Always Be Prepared to Cure
With the 2022 race decided by just 67 votes, curing—the process of ensuring all valid ballots are counted—was indispensable. Black Peak’s expertise in curing made their involvement crucial in the weeks following the election. Flipping seats and unseating incumbents are often tight races, making a curing strategy a necessity.

 

Conclusion

Black Peak’s partnership with Anthony Loubet exemplifies the power of strategic messaging, voter engagement, and local expertise. By focusing on common-ground issues, developing a robust door-knocking strategy, and leveraging their unique curing expertise, Black Peak helped transform a century-old Democratic stronghold into a Republican victory—twice. HD 27 is now a shining example of what’s possible with the right team, tools, and tactics.

OUR CAMPAIGN PARTNERS

SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE MIKE SCHULTZ

Utah State House of Representatives

Contact information given upon request

References

RYAN COWLEY

Director of Elections, State of Utah

Contact information given upon request

STAN LOCKHART

Managing Partner, The Lockhart Group

Phone: 801-368-2166

Email: stanlockhartutah@gmail.com 

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RENAE COWLEY

Partner, Foxley and Pignanelli

Phone: 801-529-3209

Email: renaecowley@gmail.com 

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KYLE FRIANT

Political Director, Governing Group

Phone: 435-979-6794

Email: kyle@governinggroup.com 

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COREY NORMAN

Chief of Staff, Senator John Curtis

Contact information given upon request. 

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ADLAI ELISON

Political Director, Election Hive

Phone: 435-669-7964

Email: adlai@electionhive.com 

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REPRESENTATIVE ANTHONY LOUBET

Utah State House

Contact information given upon request.

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